If its even remotely true, then thats a huge drop from the 2.2k global avg that most of know. I would think this means players overall ranked gaming skillz are getting worse? hmmm..
that seems really low.. at 1st I thought it was like 3k (just my assumption when i started playing).. then I heard it was like 2.75k/2.5k and now this?? I have a friend who is 1.5k and he is god-awful (he used fiends grip on a creep last night just as an everyday example), its hard to imagine this as the avg skill level haha
Its quite interesting claim but we have to think that this is globally. Thats like thousands of players who might just play casual ranked on a daily basis. I mean if u think about it, its somewhat probable in a global scale.
I assume it's still 2.2k
Idk why it would have gone down by 700. Seems hard to believe without a good source.
wasnt the median 2750 or something? and i think it is still there.
2250 was the average in the 2013 matchmaking right before ranked came out
now we only know that 80% are normal skill 10% hs 10% vhs iirc
sounds like bunch of crap
why would it suddenly move down by several hundreds, that makes 0 sense
actually if you look at games around 1-1.5k you will already notice big differences between the numbers like at 6k+ which indicates smaller pool of players
To all the people wondering how it can go down, you lose MMR when you abandon so it's obvious the average mmr should decrease with time.
@Ri
but most smurfs calibrate at mmr higher than average
also 1 mmr players dont lose their mmr when they lose games
Might be those who just try out Dota2, dont like it and leave forever. There are/were also a lot of item farming bots.
Let's consider how many abandoned games it would take to drop the global average MMR.
Suppose there are 20 million accounts, and each have solo ranked, party ranked, solo unranked, and party unranked MMR. There are only about 12 million that play regularly, and not all will have ranked MMRs but for the sake of simplicity... there would be about 180 billion MMR points in circulation. 9000 points is the average per account.
Now after playing for 3 years I have been given 4 abandons for valve servers failing. So I destroyed 100 MMR points that way. If everyone did this the average would drop about 25 MMR every 3 years. Most people probably abandon more games than I do. However, smurfs are also constantly adding extra points. The Anti-smurf controls add enough points to get new accounts into Very High in few games. The fact that this is needed implies that a lot of people may be starting new accounts that get Anti-smurfed and so new accounts may start with a higher MMR on average adding points to the system.
The question is do smurfs add points faster than abandons remove them. For a drop in the global MMR average from 2250 to 1.5k the average player would need to have 120 abandons in the abscence of smurfs. Checking everyone who posted so far on this thread 98 is the most abandons on a player with 4.5k games.
Every 3k smurf cancels out 30 abandons. Every 4k smurf cancels out 70 abandons. Every 5k smurf cancels out 110 abandons.
Now if there are such things as 1k smurfs they would drive the average MMR down... but I really don't think there can be a significant number of people who make multiple 1k accounts. Also given the threads posted on the subject it seems the anti-smurf may not even allow people to drop quickly to super low MMRs in the first place.
mannn i dunno guys, this guy who posted seems serious mannn :O coming from his valve "dev" friend insider :O
well i do the "say has disconnected form the game ..." "say has abandoned the game. This game is now safe to leave. No stats will be recorded" whenever someone wants to dual mid with me. usually the guy is so retarded that he just abandons straight away
it'll be higher than you expect, valve are smart enough to let its player-base think they are better than they are.
Lower average just means the player base increased a lot.
When MMR first came in the population was smaller and more experienced. Upon first calibration average was 2200.
A few Internationals later with a large influx of new players the new players should not be calibrating higher than the average incumbent player pool. As in the old 2200 mmr people would be more skilled then completely new players thereby calibrating the new players lower.
MMR is not a rating of individual skill. Lets say the player pool had 3 people. You and lets just say iceiceice and puppey. You are the bottom 33% of the player population. All of a sudden 7 blind people join the player pool. Without improving you hopefully become the top 30%. All this from doing nothing.
Just because you were average at 2250 and now average is 1500 doesn't mean your skills improved 750 points. It just means you should still be playing at 2250 match making rank and not 1500.
TrippleSteal points out another way for the system to lose points... but how many 1 mmr players are there really? If there were 100 "1 MMR" players who lost 10 games a day it would take them 54 years to knock the global average down by 25 MMR points.
If the average player has 10 abandons it drops the global average MMR by 62.5 points. But smurfs can probably make that up.
... lets see...
In a population of 12 million regularly active dota players there are very roughly 600,000 at High Skill level and about 600,000 at Very High Skill level.
Supposing that 25% of the High and Very High players made a smurf account. I will estimate that creates an extra 4.5 billion MMR which raises the average MMR by 22 points. (150,000 smurfs @ avg 3500 MMRx4 MMRs + 150,000 smurfs @ avg 4000 MMRx 4 MMRs = 4.5 billion extra MMR), (184.5 billion MMR/180 billion MMR)*(20 million accounts/20.3 million accounts)*2250 -2250 = +22 average mmr.
So maybe abandons do drag global average MMR down more than smurfs increase it... but either way its going to stay very close to 2250 average no matter what happens.
i remember when one redditard made a graph about mmr inflation/deflation and a good portion of his post was about 1 mmr players LMFAOOOOOOOOOO
well we'd need to know the abandon rate in rmm but i highly doubt that it's that massive to cause the average mmr drop by 700 pts
The average player would need 120 abandons to drop the average global MMR to 1.5k. Arin has 42... but you also have far above average games played.
The only way I can see this being a significant problem for the global MMR is if everyone at low MMR is abandoning games like crazy. I guess it could be happening. I don't really know.
how does abandoning a game drop the mmr anyway? If you abandon in the middle the assumption is your team will lose cus it's 4v5 so it's same as just getting a loss right? I don't get it.
@Relentless
There is less than 10% of players at VHS. 10% OF GAMES happen at VHS. But since people in VHS probably play a lot more than people in normal it's hard to say what percent of people are actually VHS.
I agree with your conclusion though. Good post buddy!
@dire wolf
if you abandon b4 the game starts, you lose pts, while the other 9 players hold => negative flow
if you abandon in the middle of the game and ur team loses; 5 players lose their mmr, and the other 5 pick up lost pts => equilibrium
if you abandon the game in the middle and ur team wins, 6 players lose pts and 4 gain => negative flow
Ok that makes sense but I'd assume vast majority will be scenario 2 where you abandon and team loses since many abandons are rage quits when team is down, and if they aren't losing a crucial player often leads to a loss.
say has disconnected from the game. Please wait for them to reconnect.
say has abandoned the game. This game is now safe to leave. No stats will be recorded.
try it 50% of the time it works every time (for some reason i cant write f a g g o t s nor f a * g o ts nor f a g e t s)
It used to be 2.2K so I wouldn't be really surprised if it is now 1.5k. That said Why would it drop so much? Do new accounts now calibrate a lot lower or something?
Very High is something like 6% of players. I actually used the cut-off at 3900 MMR which is 5% of players.
Dire Wolf is right, most abandons probably don't destroy MMR. But I calculated the worst case situation where they all do.
If we were to say that only 25% of abandons - the players team still wins, then the average number of abandons per player needed for the global average MMR to drop to 1.5k MMR is 480 abandons per player.... The point is this can't be happening. Global average MMR is almost certainly still very close to 2250.
^ VHS is the top 10%. it will always be. The rank you need to get VHS will change to fit that percentage.
Maybe they mean median and not average cus that could happen. A bunch of new players join and tank, but they don't keep playing the same people. Those people they lose too also beat up on each other and stay relatively stable but all the new people fall to 1.5k. The maybe you have equal number under 1.5k as you do over though mmr spread over is so k h higher than average is a lot higher.
Please sign in to post comments.
So I saw this guys post in reddit that "claims" to have some inside info from one of the doto "devs". He said that the global avg MMR actually is now sitting at roughly 1.5k MMR. I'm not sure how true is this or is it even believable. If this is really confidential info, I would guess his post might get deleted or something.
Thoughts?