draft matters only in really really high skill, in the trash tier you are in you can win with any hero
yeah that's pretty much how you could describe dota. Bad draft = -25, If you get shit teammates again -25. There's literally no skills in this game, you could know some tricks or outplay your opponent by buying dust to take care of riki, but skill is not a thing in this game. Its all about thinking and knowing things.
I played shit fucking ton of 1vs1 with a 6.9k friend. We both have same ideas of what we're going to do but he sinply has more skill and lands more cs, blocks better and manipulates creep aggro better. So i have something like 20-30% winrate against him. He wins more because he simply has more skill.
I could play 1k avg and enemy may have 10 times better draft but i can still win with whatever the fuck retarded hero for its position. Just because I have way more skill. I somewhat do it all the time in overthrow where im in most cases doubling or tripling others' mmrs.
iz all about ze skillz
u giv ABED MEPO AGNST 3K MMR WID SHKR LICH WNTER EMBR SVEN AND HE WIN CUZ HE SKILL NUB
Moving the cursor on creep and correctly timing the hit is considered a skill?
Blocking may be called "skill" but not a superior skill which can win the game.
Anyone can manipulate creep aggro, some people like you just don't know how to do it.
I mean yeah you can say these things require "skill" but it can be learned very simply and it doesn't take years to train to be good at certain thing, not like in sports or something where you naturally have to be skilled and train for few years to get into professional scene.
Reading the game predicting the movements of the enemy and analysing how and when you take your next big objective via smoke plays on an item timing or split pushing avoiding 5v5's these kind of things are skills and are far superior the higher the level you get miracle and S4 etc didn't reach 9k because they simply drafted better they have far superior mental ability and mechanical skills. I think PPD did once say that you may be out drafted but then there is different ways how you play a game i.e make it slow and defensive or fast paced with a lot of pick offs or centre 5 mans around rosh and never go alone to name a few luck i believe has very little to play when you think about what you are doing. The sooner you stop thinking so narrowly and learn that dota had many depths thats when you start winning
More like 50% draft (because it directly affects how your random teammates will play), 40% skill, 10% luck.
Why is everyone so focused around drafting it really does not matter until the really high levels of mmr (6 or 7k+) i literally played a game of mid visage when there is a sven in the enemy team and my teammate last picked bristle into him and necro did i care? No because i dumpstered them because i was making calls on where the enemy where and how we are taking our next objective and who to focus in fights highly pressuring the enemy who has outdrafted you is a good way to force mistakes by simply thinking about what you and the enemy are doing and devising counter plans you will win a lot more games draft is only 15%, skill and analysing 80%, luck 5%
Nah, certainly it matters more than 15%. Especially in the try-hard 3-4k tiers, if you play out of meta hero, the game collapses at start already and flaming ensues.
Also you'll have games you lost by default because nobody wants to support, and so on. Or jungle pick against aggressive enemies, no defense or counter push against pusher team, etc, you get the drift.
Draft matters more than 15% for sure, and I don't mean "to find the perfect draft" matters, but just generally picking heroes that your team will know what to do with.
Draft matters in terms not to counter yourself - assuming players have simmilar skill level. For example picking Meepo into Sven. Arguments that "Im 5k and i can rekt any draft in 3k" is not very smart cos we are not talking about that kind of situation where your skill level is higher than the bracket itself. I think draft is important cos you may afford to make more mistakes and not be punished for them. While you play with a shitty draft you have to make almost no mistakes, and every mistake will be a big step to lose the game.
Drafting is a skill. Though let's not kid ourselves and call it drafting. Let's call it picks. Cus all pick, that's what it is, it's not a real draft of countering enemies.
People saying I can win at 3k with any hero, yes, yes you can cus you are way more skilled than 3k. Assume all things are equal, all players equally skilled which is essentially what mmr matching is supposed to do. What matters most? Picks duh. And since pubs aren't coordinated niche picks that have specific timings or need a certain strat bomb. So just pick easy to execute heroes with lots of disables and right click. Pick solid lanes. Win game. It's at least 50% of the game. You can generally just look at a team's picks in a 3k pub and predict the winner.
I just use my matches as examples:
https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/3458012209
Enemy has no aoe, we picked ck. Their team is early heavy push with lycan, ss, winranger, viper, but we have tinker to depush. So game is going to go late and our picks wreck them late.
https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/3456026811
Np is a horrible pub pick, so is qop, plus qop randomed so it's safe to assume he's not a very good qop. I picked necro but they picked all magic dmg so ghost shroud will be ineffective and necro easy to kill. Even if SB was amazing and we snowballed hard off ganks they have frost armor and living armor for towers until spec comes online. Super easy to predict how this one goes.
https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/3454332403
Again one team has np, other team has necro. Also not nearly enough catch for slark, once silencer ult is gone it's gg.
https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/3454299970
This one I really thought we would win, they don't have enough to stop weaver once linkens is online but before then bat + nyx is enough. But in retrospect nyx >>> od and necro >>> all. They crushed us.
Draft doesn't even matter that much in 7k dota lol
I just played a game with the worst draft possible against a lineup that perfectly countered our strategy.
https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/3459715373
If this was a pro game and I saw the picks i'd say the only say radiant wins this is if kotl gets an early aghs and they 5 man push while enemy has no farm to stop them.
What happenned was the exact opposite- We lost early game, kotl aghs was very late and sniper got fed. I thought this was a quick -25 but no.
Enemy team started throwing like idiots because this is a pub game. We managed to hold on for 85 minutes and only lost because we made couple of really stupid feeds in the late game.
My point is drafts almost never decide games in pubs and only matter in top level tourmanent games.
honestly in pubs nothing really matters, people make mistakes no matter what even if they are ahead or behind
you could lose the draft and still win the game, although highly unlikely
draft matters but you cant factor out the human part as well
sometimes even with a far superior draft its possible to lose if you miss the peak timings to get objectives (rosh/rax/win the game)
hey so @I play for fun
how in fucks sake wud u know how long and difficult it is to master the individual skills of dota at ur retarded mmr?
ur basically saying game doesnt require skill cuz u dont have any, which is fucking braindead
If picks don't matter how come there are heroes with 20% win rate difference in 2k. Meanwhile, in 5k highest WR difference is 14%, which would imply that good pick matters more in 2k than in 5k.
Really makes you 
.
True. But don't forget that 2ks need to learn a lot of the harder heroes which accounts for the Low winrates whereas 5ks typically already know how to play those heroes and pick only when appropriate.
Do you think that if an extremely good meepo player from 6k+ bracket plays in like 2k average game and the enemy team picks shit like wv, axe, sven, shaker and somethin like say legion or somethin rly good v meepo, that he would still just steamroll thanks to the extra lvls and do a little 1v5 showdown or would that just not be possible purely cuz of how his hero works?
A couple of guys built a system that could predict the result of pub games just from the draft with 70% accuracy. So its fair to say the game is 70% about the draft.
Lol, trolling?
Great, counterpick my best hero with hero you never played. Now who will win?
Generally everybody have pool of around 5 heroes he can play on the same level. Probably 1-2 of them higher. Another 10-20 he is decent with. Or even less. Lets say some meepo spammers can play meepo on 5k, but rest of the heroes on 3k.
More than on the draft it depends on team setup - do you have player for each role and are they comfortable on them?
For example i have 60% wr on mid, but if i am forced to be carry, i have 40% wr. And if you have 4 players who can play mid or carry, your team is quite fucked up.
@Fahreinheit
For me
60% draft
30% skill
10% not tilting!
10% not having a peruvian in your team****
Assuming somewhat similar skill-sets (i.e. you don't put up EG against a bunch of 1kers), I find the following win determinants based on my experience.
40% draft (the draft is huge. there's no way around it. a bad draft already makes it a very uphill battle).
20% skill (even in similar matchups, things like better last hitting and lane control, good micro of summons, orb-walking, can make a huge difference)
20% item choice and skill build (even good players sometimes mess up, for example getting linkens when not needed, or skipping it when it's badly needed. Or pugna maxing dec and not getting nether ward against a team of casters).
5% luck (this includes uphill misses, rune spawns, arrows/hooks, crits, evasion, etc)
15% decisions/mistakes/tilting (e.g. tping to save a lane and succeeding, successful smoke ganks, etc).
You know there are 3 kind of aces
Those who seek strength
Those who live for pride
And thosr who can read the tide of battle
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0% skill kk