3.5% is not THAT small, someone should be on the extreme points of this distribution.
also, how did u calculate the pribabilities? as binominal distribtuion ~ N (0.5a*amount of games, 0.25*amount of games) adjusted to standard normal distribution n(1,0) and using the table of probabilities for this latter one afterwards?
I agree it's not that small of a chance, it's almost like hitting a number in roulette. Though it just doesn't seem like it.
I didn't actually calculate it. I just simulated all the placements 100k times(which is a big enough sample size) multiple times and it game me an approximation to the actual chance.
according to very rough calculations i did, the probability of having 1522 or more games on dire on a sample of 2946 games is about 44%.
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So, I've noticed for quite a long time that I get placed on Dire a bit too often. I am certain that I've not had a month of dota where I had more matches on radiant than on dire. Which is disappointing looking at how much better I usually do on Radiant.
Then I made some small calculations and got that the chance of me getting so few Radiant games with so many total games played was about 3.5%.
Does that mean that I got ridiculously unlucky or it's just not pure 50% chance. My guess is the latter. But, if so, it doesn't really make much sense, because for someone to get more dire games than radiant someone else must get a reverse situation. What could be the criteria for choosing those.