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70 comments
Flossing

    jopa chlen zalupa

    This comment was edited
    Джин

      Я НЕ ПОНЕЛ!

      Gold Bird

        First English?

        Tigran Petrosian

          Espanish please

          Wintermute

            Great article, Gorgon.

            Joint Doctor

              nice learning )

              one

                Great to have the understanding of this but I don't know if most people at any skill level would really be able to pay a lot of attention to their procs unless it's a solo Lane. I'll add that I'm in the normal skill level so I might very well be wrong.

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                Luxius

                  Will test it out

                  Squishy

                    Terrific article! Made easy to understand :D

                    forsenboy

                      Great article, I would really love to see a table to other heroes, not only Slardar, but really well done overall.

                      pit

                        "Non-hero abilities also use true random"
                        So if you devour a wolf as doom, you'll get true random crit?

                        RAseL !

                          rly rly usefull tnx a lot

                          Kusmana

                            чет лень читать ;/

                            TheDude

                              This is amazing with the earthshaker shadowblade crit build. you walk into the jungle, you get 5 misses on your crit, you search for opponents, go invis with the shadow blade (ofcourse you use enchant totem before you go invis) and you have a much higher chance to perform a critical strike and destroy your opponent.

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                              Sup m8

                                17% Boys

                                SupMeOrISupUrMom'sOrgasmT...

                                  Awesome article!

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                                  マテリス

                                    Good one.

                                    Just one thing that isn't clear enough about the graph of true and pseudo random.
                                    It's the chance to touch your proc in n "hit" right after your just proced.

                                    Майонезная баночка мочи

                                      Я частенько поебываю гусей.

                                      zeon Ю

                                        please russian

                                        Penumbra (RUS)

                                          Что делать,если не знаешь английский?

                                          Boundless Strike in Gaben...

                                            really hard to obtain any real practical relevance from the article and the subject as a whole.....many more factors to consider then just when your passive is going to proc...in game

                                            Jukerlaw

                                              Well. This looks complex.

                                              marsenal

                                                Does stacking the chances for proc work if you attack something you'll 100% miss? (e.g. Windranger while windrunning)

                                                하나♥

                                                  Great article!

                                                  Z0mBi3

                                                    Too much math, my brain just melted.

                                                    Piu

                                                      17% is really boys

                                                      マテリス

                                                        @marsenal

                                                        You can make a crit on a missed attack, so nope (mb for mjolnir it does work however, i should test it ^^)

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                                                        Ricapica

                                                          what about ogre magi's ultimate and canceling the animation on the stun. will it increase the odds or are the odds calculated after the stun goes through?

                                                          D-maister

                                                            Очень интересная статья. Если вкратце, она о том, что можно искусственно получать пассивный эффект (баш, стан, крит) перед гангом или замесом. Для этого можно бить своих крипов, либо отменять атаку несколько раз - тогда следующий удар будет с эффектом. Кол-во ударов зависит от %, который имеет эффект.

                                                            12YearsOldNoScoper

                                                              This changes everything :)

                                                              t0kimonsta-

                                                                I dont think the right graph on the top you have there is correct. I work with pseudorandom numbers on a daily basis. Generating pseudorandom numbers is a non-trivial task, and years of dedicated research by mathematicians have produced highly sophisticated algorithms that produce random numbers that are almost indistinguishable from true random numbers. Your average household calculator with a rng function can even give you a good binomial pseudorandom number with a 17% chance of an event happening. The notion that the rng in Dota 2 produces a distribution different from the 'real' one is HIGHLY unlikely (if it does indeed use an RNG at all), and even saying it makes you look stupid and uneducated. I'm sorry but this article is trash.

                                                                idc win

                                                                  I'm trying to understand why in the pseudo random scenario you suggest that after 11 hits of not procing the event (bash, crit, etc) why is there a sharp decline in cumulative odds.

                                                                  marsenal

                                                                    @matrice
                                                                    Yeah, I guess then crit doesn't work, the others might.
                                                                    @Ricapica
                                                                    Ogre's ult is True Random (as the article says), so it doesn't matter if you cancel the animation.

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                                                                    Stickwicki

                                                                      @nkf
                                                                      after so many hits (11 for example), you have had so many chances/hits beforehand to proc the event that getting to such a high number without a proc is very unlikely. The graph is simply showing how likely it is for you to proc after each successive attempt (for the first time). It would be extremely unlikely for you to get 15 hits in WITHOUT procing the event, hence why it is such a low possibility.

                                                                      Old Monk

                                                                        my english gud vry..commend

                                                                        aKKI

                                                                          Lets say I am playing troll and I went 9 attacks(in meele form) without a bash and now I am saving the 10th attack to hit a hero but then I get a lvl up and I lvl up my 1st skill.Does this mean that the odds for a proc of bash on my next attack also reset or it stays the same i.e. high chance of proc on my next attack?

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                                                                          Mandalord

                                                                            @Cunnilinguistician: You are such a noob and uneducated, the pseudo-random dota 2 uses is different from the real one. Ice frog said so. Period. Btw I'm economics teacher and work with random number too, both pseudo and real.

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                                                                            Baconisgood

                                                                              this is really interesting to read

                                                                              Seetwopie.Player2

                                                                                really, wasting of time counting unsuccessful chances.

                                                                                typical.

                                                                                  @Cunnilinguistician - For someone who claims to be so educated, your post sure is a load of utter rubbish.

                                                                                  µ's SuBi ♪

                                                                                    so deeeeep

                                                                                    Jimbo

                                                                                      Commending author.

                                                                                      More game mechanics articles please :)

                                                                                      MonkaGIGA

                                                                                        So much meth, I mean math.

                                                                                        CoaCH

                                                                                          Fyi the hero this is the most exploitable on is CK -- his animation is slow enough to be able to "release" cancel when you're trying to get a crit ; practice a couple minutes and you should be able to release cancel based on sound. I've been called a cheater for killing people with 4 crits lvl 1 if my lane partner has a slow/stun.

                                                                                          CoaCH

                                                                                            And get off my obstacle you fat tub of lard.

                                                                                            MasterWu

                                                                                              Короче, псевдорандом-миф, Габен-гей, и сын шлюхи.

                                                                                              Greentoa123

                                                                                                Currently the Enchanted Mango only has a 31.43% win rate. Together, we as a community, have the ability to fix this problem and end this horrific tragedy. Please help. It is our duty as gamers to give this item the respect it is due.

                                                                                                t0kimonsta-

                                                                                                  @Mandalord That's great. You probably work with monte-carlo simulations then. Perhaps you even use stochastic differential equations in your work (i.e. using ornstein-uhlenbeck processes to model interest rates, etc.) Then you should know that all random numbers generated by computers are 'pseudo-random'. If you knew the seed of the RNG, you can predict exactly what the next random number will be. In an effort to obtain 'true' random numbers, some wall street firms actually use data obtained from movements of particles in the stratosphere, remaining true to how 'Brownian Motion' was discovered. There is no such thing as a 'real' random number generated by a computer. Everything is done algorithmically, in very clever ways and using parameters that have been carefully calibrated. If you are curious, you can look up 'mixed linear congruential generator' or 'multiplicative congruential generator' as these are the popular ones.

                                                                                                  Since you are so smart, please enlighten me: the gist of this article seems to say that for some heroes, the likelihood function is somehow different from a series of independent Bernoulli trials. The only way I can somehow see that this article would be correct, is if the random numbers are somehow correlated (i.e. the independence and identically distributed assumption is violated). Would you say that this is what you had in mind as well?

                                                                                                  Hi and die

                                                                                                    Я человек простой: вижу иностранный пост - пишу "АААА СЛОЖНА".